On November 13, Embraer released the "China Market Outlook 2024" at the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition开yun体育网, forecasting robust growth in China’s air passenger market over the next 20 years. The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% for revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) in China, surpassing the average of the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting the resilience and potential of China’s air passenger market.

Embraer is a Brazilian multinational aerospace corporation, which is the third largest producer of civil aircraft worldwide after Boeing and Airbus.

According to the report, the Asia-Pacific region will lead the market growth of the global air passenger market over the next 20 years, with a CAGR of 5% in RPK. By 2043, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be the world's largest aviation market, accounting for 38% global passenger traffic.

Based on the statistical data analysis of the Civil Aviation Administration, Embraer believes that China's civil aviation traffic is expected to exceed 700 million passengers in 2024, surpassing the forecast base line made by Embraer in 2023. Embraer expects that China's civil aviation passenger traffic will reach 930 million by 2027.

Embraer pointed out that, accessibility of China's air transportation network still has huge growth potential, and indicators such as the number of OD（origin & destination）and the number of flights per capita are far below the level of Europe and the United States. At present, China's medium and low-density routes have huge market vitality, and the number of low density and medium density routes in the CAGR is 20% and 10%, respectively, which is higher than the 7% level of the high-density market.

Martyn Holmes, chief commercial officer of Embraer Commercial Aviation, said that it can be supportive of the CAAC's policy around connecting trunk routes to regional routes and enhancing connectivity within China, while Embraer's E2 aircraft can play a role in this regard. In the meantime, Embraer looks forward to building new partnerships with Chinese partners.

The report points out that 85% of China's current transport airports are small-sized and medium-sized airports, which has great potential for growth. Wide-body aircraft now make up the majority of China's passenger aircraft fleet. According to foreign experience, in order to achieve higher efficiency, more narrow-body aircraft are needed.

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